A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
