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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still