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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd